Predictability of the summer East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet in ENSEMBLES multi-model forecasts     

Chaofan Li  Zhongda Lin 《大气科学进展》2015,32(12):1669-1682

The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet(EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint,from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation,to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts,initiated from1 May,in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960–2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ,which reflects the models' performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally,the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast,the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis,associated with the meridional displacement,and interannual intensity change of the EAJ,the second leading EOF mode,meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and,subsequently,summer climate in East Asia,using current coupled models.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to an Observed Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly     

Dieter H. W. Peters  Andrea Schneidereit  Marianne Bügelmayer  Christoph Zülicke  Ingo Kirchner 《大气与海洋》2015,53(1):74-88

Abstract

In a sensitivity study, the influence of an observed stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on the atmospheric circulation was investigated using the Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) which is a general circulation model. The model was run from 1960 to 1999 (40 years) with a mean seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric ozone. In order to isolate the induced dynamical influence of the observed zonally asymmetric part of the three-dimensional stratospheric ozone, a second run was performed for the boreal extratropics using prescribed monthly means from the 40-year reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40). The main findings are the interdecadal westward shift of the polar vortex at about 65°N and a significant increase in the number of stratospheric sudden warmings during the 1980–99 period. Under the action of zonally asymmetric ozone a decrease in the Arctic Oscillation was identified between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. The lag correlation between the mean Arctic Oscillation at the surface and the daily stratospheric northern annular mode increased in mid-winter. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on Rossby wave breaking in the upper troposphere and found a significant westward shift of poleward Rossby wave breaking events over western Europe in the winter. By this we show that the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly has a strong influence on the tropospheric circulation as a result of enhanced dynamical coupling processes.  相似文献   

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Baiquan Zhou  Ruoyun Niu  Panmao Zhai 《大气科学进展》2015,32(3):401-412

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.  相似文献   

SRES A2 情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件变化特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杨红龙  潘婕  张镭 《气象与环境学报》2015,31(1):51-59

随全球变暖,应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式-HadAM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果,模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明：全球PRECIS对基准时段（1961-1990年）的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段,未来情景下未来时段（2071-2100年）中国各地区的高温热浪的强度增加,发生频率增幅超过了100 %,且持续时间增加30 %以上。此外,观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 hPa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下,武汉和哈尔滨地区500 hPa高度场的正距平呈增加趋势,表明这些地区未来可能面临危害更严重的高温热浪事件。  相似文献   

Ronge-Kutta法在计算复杂构造区域地震波旅行时中的应用     

邹长桥  段永红  唐秋惠  徐佼  陈立波 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(5):894-897

采用Ronge-Kutta射线追踪法对地震勘探中几个典型地质模型的地震波射线路径和旅行时计算的实例和效果进行分析。将Ronge-Kutta射线追踪模拟的结果与程函方程计算的时距曲线结果进行对比,验证了Ronge-Kutta射线追踪法的易实现性和程函方程有限差分旅行时算法的强稳定性,表明Ronge-Kutta射线追踪法在复杂构造区域进行地震射线路径和旅行时计算时能得到较好的模拟效果。  相似文献   

The burial of biogenic silica,organic carbon and organic nitrogen in the sediments of the East China Sea     

Wang  Lisha  Zhang  Chuansong  Shi  Xiaoyong 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2015,14(3):464-470

We sampled the sediments of the East China Sea during 2005 and 2006, and analysed the contents of the biogenic mat-ters: biogenic silica, organic carbon, and organic nitrogen. From the surface distribu...  相似文献   

东昆仑地区中生代熔融、同化、存储和均一(MASH)过程及壳幔岩浆混合     

南卡俄吾  贾群子  李文渊  唐玲  李金超  栗亚芝  孔会磊 《地球科学与环境学报》2015,(1)

哈西亚图石英闪长岩是东昆仑地区中生代具幔源组分贡献的花岗岩类典型代表,岩体出露于东昆仑中构造带,广泛发育暗色微粒包体。包体为闪长质岩石,并含有一系列岩浆混合成因的证据,如水滴状、长条状塑性流变外形,淬冷边、反向脉等高—中温混合迹象,以及低Mg/(Fe+Mg)、Na/(Ca+Na)值等混合成因特征。包体A/CNK值介于0.77~0.87,属准铝质,富Al2O3、Fe2O3、MgO,贫K2O、Na2O,富集大离子亲石元素(Rb、Ba、K等),同时又具有Ta、Nb、Ti的"TNT"负异常,具有俯冲带幔源岩石的成分特点。依据岩石学、地球化学特征并结合同时期大地构造背景,东昆仑晚古生代—早中生代含暗色微粒包体花岗质岩石是幔源岩浆经历多次熔融、同化、存储和均一(MASH)过程后与壳源岩浆混合的产物。在混合岩浆中,富镁铁质端元是由辉长质岩浆进化而来的闪长质岩浆。  相似文献   

Prediction of application scope of vertical fracture strike based on scattered wave fracture orientation function     

TANG Yufei  LIU Yuwei  LIU Xiwu  YANG Guodong 《世界地质(英文版)》2015,18(1)

Fracture system plays a very important role in the enrichment and accumulation of oil and gas in the reservoirs. Based on scattering wave information,Fracture Orientation Function( FOF) was built,which can be used to predict the fracture orientations. However,this method has only been verified by physical experiments without studies on the application scope. In this study,based on the linear sliding theory,FOF of the scattering wave was applied to the numerical simulation and the application scope was further studied according to fracture flexibility tensor. According to the fractures filled with gas and liquid,numerical simulation was conducted on the models with various fracture flexibilities. Numerical simulation results were used to inverse fracture orientation with the aid of the FOF of the scattering wave. The results show that it is workable to predict the vertical fracture orientation with the FOF of the scattering wave. Application of this method is more effective when the fractures are filled with gas than liquid. Moreover,the application scope can be predicted by the fracture flexibility.  相似文献   

利用三维地震资料研究夹河煤矿煤层厚度          下载免费PDF全文

孙立新 《山东国土资源》2015,31(12)

夹河煤矿位于徐州市西北部,设计生产能力为140万t/a,新构造活动不强,构造稳定性较好。通过对矿区地震特征、煤储层特征分析,认为区内煤层稳定且储量大,该文以夹河煤矿为例,利用常规解释方法和地震属性参数技术解释了2煤层的煤层厚度,分析了地震属性剖面及煤层厚度图的成图方法,从而找出煤层厚度的变化规律,取得了较好的地质效果,为矿井采掘提供高精度地震勘探资料。  相似文献   

多重散射问题的改进算法以及双排非连续弹性屏障对水平向剪切波的隔离研究     

夏唐代  孙苗苗  陈晨 《岩土力学》2011,32(8):2402-2408

与Aviles等学者的多重散射隔振理论相比较,采用更为完整的Fourier-Bessel函数系的级数展开表达式来研究弹性波入射下的多重散射问题。引入Graf加法定理,并结合位移和应力边界条件,推导了无限均匀弹性介质中任意分布的多个弹性圆柱体对于平面水平向剪切波(SH波)入射时散射系数的理论解析解。随后,取圆柱体分布于两条相互平行的直线上,则问题演变为双排弹性桩屏障对于弹性波的隔离问题。引入无量纲位移(屏障后土体总的位移与仅由入射平面水平向剪切波引起的位移的比值)和透射系数(屏障宽度范围内无量纲位移的几何平均值)的概念来研究屏障的隔振效果。重点讨论了双排桩间距h以及桩土的剪切模量比ξ对于屏障整体隔振效果的影响,阐述了双排桩屏障的隔振性状。特别地,当h=0时,该问题退化为常见的单排非连续屏障的隔振问题。  相似文献